The Campaign Today

Where is the McAdams' campaign today?

If you're on the inside of this wonderful adventure, it would be hard to fault anything. There is plentiful and enthusiastic volunteer support, and we have a hard working candidate with a great record of effectiveness who relates well to people of both parties. 

The management of the campaign is strong and effective. 

We're also blessed with a flawed opponent who is everything Ben is not. Mark Crockett is quick to anger, awkward with people and adverse to fund raising and retail politics. He's an ideologue with a doctrinaire approach that resists inclusion, compromise or decent listening skills. 

His greatest detractors are the very Republican leaders who know him best. 

Unfortunately, we're in an enviornment that's poles apart from the familiarity shared by those Republican leaders. The vast majority of the electorate know nothing about Ben McAdams or Mark Crockett. Most people couldn't identify either one as a candidate if they met them at the grocery store, exchanged names, and shook hands. 

That lack of acquaintance works well for Mark Crockett, but it's poison for Ben McAdams. 

Most Salt Lake County voters self-identify as conservative, and their default party of choice is the Republican party. When they walk into the voting booth, if all they know is their respective party affilitation, then Crockett wins. 

I'd guess that if the election were held today that's what would happen.. 

Now for the good news.

• The election will not be held today
• That sense of default Republican preference is both broad and shallow
• Over the next sixty days every ounce of public knowlege, about either candidate, will amount to an additional ounce of support for Ben McAdams

What needs to happen for Ben to win? Simply put, between now and election day, every means of informing the electorate must be exploited. A lapel pin, or a bumper sticker is no small thing. Letters to the editor are gold. A public venue featuring both candidates is the motherlode. The ability to advertise on television would be a huge plus

What course of action is to Crockett's advantage? Exactly what he's doing right now... nothing. The better he's able to keep this race a secret, the better his odds of success. 

For Crockett, the strategy he used in the primary is both similar to, and different from, the strategy he needs today. The part that's similar is maintaining public ignorance of his record and persona. The part that's different is making his opponent's character the focus of his campaign. Now, in this race, that effort would be suicide.

My prediction? Oddly, it is similar to what happened in that very same Republican primary. Ben will be close, but probably trail until late October. Then, when public attention becomes focused, and bits of information start to trace the outline of public preference, Ben will surge ahead. 

That's my prediction. My guarantee? It will be exciting until the very end!

GO BEN