What can you learn from a report about campaign contributions?
Today the Trib surveyed the latest report on campaign contributions in the race for County Mayor. The big story was that Ben out raised Mark Crockett since June by a factor of two to one. (Before June the story was similarly lopsided in Ben's favor.)
That's good news for McAdamsville.
But what else is there to learn from that article?
- Five times as many people have contributed to Ben's campaign as they have to Crockett's.
- By far the largest contributor to Crockett's campaign is Crockett himself, with about a third of total contributions coming from his own bank account.
However, there remains one stubborn fact. The latest poll, which is a rough thumbnail estimate, places Ben seven points behind.
How can that all add up?
Imagine a pie chart that is the face of a clock divided into three segments...
- A large and growing segment is composed of Ben's supporters
- One much smaller fraction is made up of Crockett supporters
- A second very large fraction is make up of those who, in the absence of knowing either candidate, will vote Republican
Right now, if #2 is added to #3, Crockett has a lead of 7%. The Challenge for Ben is to move the hands far enough so that #1 fills over half the clock.
What moves the hands? We know the overwhelming majority of people who learn about Ben like him, and will vote for him. So, introducing Ben to the voters is essential.
The power to make those introductions comes from money. And yes, Ben has raised over twice as much as Crockett, but there is a cloud to that silver lining. The $571,000 Ben has collected is about half what he needs to run the optimum campaign.
So, if you look at Ben's huge lead in raising money, and then assume he's got all the cash he needs, you're mistaken. In fact, he needs most of us to double down on our generoisty. To put it on a personal level, if you haven't yet given $3,000, then Ben needs as much as you've given so far, and as quickly as possible.
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