The New Poll

There’s a new Dan Jones poll out on the County Mayor’s race that was paid for by KSL and The Deseret News. What does it show?

• Winder leads Crockett by 6% with a 6.2% margin of error. Dan Jones characterizes the race as “volatile” and won’t make a prediction

• If the general election were held today, both Winder and Crockett would have the advantage over Ben McAdams. Winder is preferred by a margin of 48% to 40%, and Crockett leads by the larger margin of 49% to 35% over McAdams

What do I think this poll shows?

Frankly, I don’t think it has much to say about either Crockett or McAdams. The poll is entirely about Mike Winder.

Let me first offer the reservation that I am not a pollster, nor do I have access to the decks of information that produced these results. However, I do have long experience, gut feel and sheer gall.

That said, Crockett shouldn’t even be in this race. He’s probably an intelligent fellow, but he’s not much of a politician. His resume includes one successful race for county council, which he promptly lost in the next election. (A loss he blames on Obama’s landslide... really, I’m not kidding.) And if fundraising is a measure of political viability, he’s on life support.

Yet at the Republican county convention, amongst the best informed of all Republican voters, Crockett came 28 votes short of eliminating Winder from the race. And now, in a broader Republican electorate, he’s still within the margin of error.

How can that be, if Crockett’s running against an incumbent mayor of Utah’s second largest city whose name is right now sitting in your refrigerator?

Simply put, Winder is a successful political personality who is his own worst enemy. He’s warm, congenial and easy to like, but he’s also slick and inauthentic with a demonstrated willingness to cut the ethical corner.

Those negatives are telling characteristics that ultimately don’t wear well amongst those who know you best.

Frankly, I believe this race goes to Ben McAdams. Ben is immensely gifted and hugely effective, with a disarming manner that gets him to the hoop before you know he has the ball. Right now Ben is struggling with name recognition, which is the bane of every great politician who also happens to be young. But this is June, not October, and that issue can and will be fixed.

Ben has the prospect of two opponents. One is weak, and the other flawed, but both have the advantage of being Republicans in a crimson state.

Yes, Republicans. Ben has met a few of those in the past; some he’s defeated, a few he’s outmaneuvered, and a lot will be voting for him in the next election.