This Particular Week

What to make of polls?

They are the radical factor in modern day politics. Despite assurances to the contrary, campaigns - leading or trailing - depend on them.

It is also true their accuracy is highly variable, and they exist not only as measuring devices, but a factor in the very trends they attempt to measure.  

Imagine dozens of thermometers, most of which are approximately accurate, yet all have the potential to be quite inaccurate. 

Now add additional complications. They can be read only one at a time, and the last one read is assumed to be most accurate. 

Then, even more perversely, imagine that thermometers have the power to influence temperature in the direction of their reading, whether or not that reading is accurate.

This is the weather of politics and the reality of polls. 

On Friday the Trib released a Mason-Dixon poll on the County Mayor's race. The results showed Ben trailing by ten points. That result argued with an earlier Dan Jones poll indicating a close race. It also argued with internal polls projecting Ben had a lead. 

We didn't know why, but we knew the poll was inaccurate. Yet this was cold solace because in politics perception is always the reality. Our challenge wasn't dealing with the bad results of an accurate poll, but the consequences of public reaction to an inaccurate poll.

The difficulties of combating the Mason-Dixon mistake were compounded because the Tribune had decided to pay for only one poll. An error in modeling spotted months before could have prevented this last minute mistake, but with a single poll conducted at the last moment, that possibility was lost. 

Not only were our difficulties exaggerated, but so were the stakes. One problem in the last week of a campaign is worth three problems in the month of July. Especially in a race as close as this. 

We brainstormed for a few hours, but our results sounded more like frustration than any real solution equal to the moment.

Finally, a crisis outside our control was mitigated only by a source of good fortune equally outside our control. A competing poll, more credible than Mason-Dixon, released its results within hours of the Trib's story that our campaign was now toast.

Dan Jones, a nationally regarded pollster with strong local ties, released the last of three polls conducted on the County Mayor's race - all commissioned by KSL/Deseret News. This poll, in close agreement with our internal polls, showed we had a lead of 3%.

Was the Mason-Dixon damage entirely undone? Probably. But what we lost was any boost from Dan Jones that we might have enjoyed if the Mason-Dixon mistake had never happened.

What do I make of all this? 

Well... let's imagine twenty years from now Ben retires as county mayor after an unprecedented five terms in office. If someone asks me if I remember a moment when providence took a hand, I'll shrug my shoulders, but I'll remember Dan Jones, and I'll remember this particular week.